Sunday, September 25, 2011

Out of the Blocks Fast: The 2011 Heisman Race

Heisman trophies are won in the months of November and December, but the candidates are established in the early games of August and September. A select group has stepped forward in the opening weeks, staking claim to the title of Heisman contender. These are the names to watch out for in the upcoming weeks. Some of these young men will likely fade into the background, succumbing to the rigors of the conference season's grind. An elite few will carry their candidacy into the crucial months of November and December, where their every movement will be judge as being worthy or unworthy of college sport's most prestigious trophy. This is the AmStat Heisman watch list (names listed in no particular order).
Heisman frontrunner RG3 has Baylor rolling
  • Robert Griffin III (Quarterback), Baylor - Griffin is an Olympic-level track star that is masquerading as a college football quarterback. Griffin is one of the country's most exciting players, and Baylor has shaped up to be a decent football team. Griffin declared his candidacy by playing lights out on national TV against TCU on opening weekend, but he will have to perform well in the Big 12 to stay in the national consciousness. If Baylor can enter the bowl season with nine wins, and Griffin continues his stellar play, RG3 will be a serious Heisman contender.
  • Denard Robinson (Quarterback), Michigan - The man known simply as "Shoelace" is undoubtedly the most exciting player in college football. He has blazing speed, underrated arm strength, and a decent group of weapons (Junior Hemingway, Jeremy Gallon, Vince Smith). Robinson was the Heisman favorite at this time last year, but he faded fast as the Wolverines struggled in Big Ten play. This year, Robinson doesn't possess the otherworldly stats that he boasted in 2010, but his team is ranked once again, and are more talented bunch than last year. If Shoelace can lead the Wolves to a surprise appearance in the Big Ten title game, he will be a strong contender for the Heisman.
  • Brandon Weeden (Quarterback), Oklahoma State - The 27 year-old former minor league baseball player has the Cowboys in rare air at this point in the season. The Pokes are ranked in the top 10 and have a road win over a top 10 team in pocket (Texas A&M) just to prove they're for real. Weeden puts up huge numbers and has the best receiver in the country (Justin Blackmon) to throw to. Most importantly, Weeden has an excellent shot at netting double-digit wins and being in the national championship conversation when he meets Oklahoma at season's end in the Bedlam game. Big games against Texas and OU could have Heisman voters thinking about Florida State's Chris Weinke when they cast their ballots. Weinke was the most recent college football senior citizen to take home the trophy. He was 28 when he won the trophy.  
  • Russell Wilson (Quarterback), Wisconsin - These may be strong words, but Russell Wilson may be the best quarterback the Badgers have ever had. Camp Randall is accustomed to seeing smart game managers man the controls of the Badger offense, handing off to NFL-caliber running backs and dumping the ball down to massive tight ends. Now Wisconsin has Wilson, a dynamic play-maker who can run and pass with anyone in the country. With a man of his talent under center, and the usual stable of stud running backs (James White and Montee Ball), Wisconsin is now the Big Ten favorite and a darkhorse candidate for the national title. The longer Wisky stays unbeaten, the longer we will have to take Wilson seriously as a Heisman contender. 
  • Marcus Lattimore (Running Back), South Carolina - The best running back in college football isn't even eligible for the upcoming NFL Draft. Lattimore is a true sophomore who runs like a seasoned NFL veteran. He is simply unstoppable at this level, as he blends a combination of size, speed, and agility that is reminiscent of Herschel Walker. His Heisman campaign will be judged on both his individual performances and South Carolina's team success in the SEC. However, with the Gamecocks shuffling quarterbacks frequently under the direction of the Ol' Ball Coach, Lattimore's play will likely be the primary indicator of his team's success this season.  
  • Trent Richardson (Running Back), Alabama - The best player on the nation's number two team has been flying under the radar thus far. The Tide's week four tussle with Arkansas failed to be a showcase game for Richardson, as Bama rolled the Hogs off the field rather easily. Week five will bring a meeting with Florida and hopefully better competition. Richardson has ran through everybody Alabama has played and it has overshadowed Richardson's accomplishments. The aforementioned date with Florida and the blockbuster matchup with LSU's ridiculously stacked defense will be crucial games for Richardson's candidacy. The Tide will likely play in a BCS bowl game, but Richardson needs plenty of wow moments during the course of conference play since his team will be expected to win every time they take the field.

The Debut of the Amateur Status College Football Top 25

This is my third season doing top 25 polls here on AmStat. However, for the first time, I decided against a huge series of prognostications and preseason rankings. My reasoning was simple...they're never right, so why embarrass myself? Why waste time making predictions when the results of actual football games will give us all the indication we need to tell who has the look of a champion, and who just looks good in their uniforms. Four weeks are in the books for this 2011 college football season, and with the last remaining conference opening their league schedule next week (of course, it would be the nauseatingly old-fashioned Big Ten that has yet to start playing conference games), there is no better time to start from square one than week four. At this point, contenders have emerged and pretenders have been exposed. This will probably be the most accurate top 25 AmStat has ever did for the simple fact that I've never been able to build a ranking from scratch with up to four games to use as a reference. I may eventually go back to more expansive preseason coverage in the future, but I will always regard my week four poll as the first one that really matters. Without further ado, the first AmStat Top 25 of the 2011 season.

"The Hat" has three road wins over ranked teams this year
1. LSU Tigers (4-0)
2. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0)
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0)
4. Boise State Broncos (3-0)
5. Stanford Cardinal (4-0)
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0)
7. Wisconsin Badgers (4-0)
8. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-0)
9. Clemson Tigers (4-0)
10. Florida Gators (4-0)
11. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-0)
12. South Florida Bulls (4-0)
13. Virginia Tech Hokies  (4-0)
14. Baylor Bears (3-0)
15. Texas Longhorns (4-0)
16. Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0)
17. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-0)
18. Michigan Wolverines (4-0)
19. Oregon Ducks (3-1)
20. Texas A&M Aggies (2-1)
21. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1)
22. TCU Horned Frogs (3-1)
23. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-1)
24. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-1)
25. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1)

Also Considered...
Kansas State (3-0)
Houston (4-0)
Michigan State (3-1)
Penn State (3-1)
Texas Tech (4-0)