Out of the Blocks Fast: The 2011 Heisman Race

Heisman trophies are won in the months of November and December, but the candidates are established in the early games of August and September. A select group has stepped forward in the opening weeks, staking claim to the title of Heisman contender. These are the names to watch out for in the upcoming weeks. Some of these young men will likely fade into the background, succumbing to the rigors of the conference season's grind. An elite few will carry their candidacy into the crucial months of November and December, where their every movement will be judge as being worthy or unworthy of college sport's most prestigious trophy. This is the AmStat Heisman watch list (names listed in no particular order).

Heisman frontrunner RG3 has Baylor rolling

• Robert Griffin III (Quarterback), Baylor - Griffin is an Olympic-level track star that is masquerading as a college football quarterback. Griffin is one of the country's most exciting players, and Baylor has shaped up to be a decent football team. Griffin declared his candidacy by playing lights out on national TV against TCU on opening weekend, but he will have to perform well in the Big 12 to stay in the national consciousness. If Baylor can enter the bowl season with nine wins, and Griffin continues his stellar play, RG3 will be a serious Heisman contender.
• Denard Robinson (Quarterback), Michigan - The man known simply as "Shoelace" is undoubtedly the most exciting player in college football. He has blazing speed, underrated arm strength, and a decent group of weapons (Junior Hemingway, Jeremy Gallon, Vince Smith). Robinson was the Heisman favorite at this time last year, but he faded fast as the Wolverines struggled in Big Ten play. This year, Robinson doesn't possess the otherworldly stats that he boasted in 2010, but his team is ranked once again, and are more talented bunch than last year. If Shoelace can lead the Wolves to a surprise appearance in the Big Ten title game, he will be a strong contender for the Heisman.
• Brandon Weeden (Quarterback), Oklahoma State - The 27 year-old former minor league baseball player has the Cowboys in rare air at this point in the season. The Pokes are ranked in the top 10 and have a road win over a top 10 team in pocket (Texas A&M) just to prove they're for real. Weeden puts up huge numbers and has the best receiver in the country (Justin Blackmon) to throw to. Most importantly, Weeden has an excellent shot at netting double-digit wins and being in the national championship conversation when he meets Oklahoma at season's end in the Bedlam game. Big games against Texas and OU could have Heisman voters thinking about Florida State's Chris Weinke when they cast their ballots. Weinke was the most recent college football senior citizen to take home the trophy. He was 28 when he won the trophy.  
• Russell Wilson (Quarterback), Wisconsin - These may be strong words, but Russell Wilson may be the best quarterback the Badgers have ever had. Camp Randall is accustomed to seeing smart game managers man the controls of the Badger offense, handing off to NFL-caliber running backs and dumping the ball down to massive tight ends. Now Wisconsin has Wilson, a dynamic play-maker who can run and pass with anyone in the country. With a man of his talent under center, and the usual stable of stud running backs (James White and Montee Ball), Wisconsin is now the Big Ten favorite and a darkhorse candidate for the national title. The longer Wisky stays unbeaten, the longer we will have to take Wilson seriously as a Heisman contender. 
• Marcus Lattimore (Running Back), South Carolina - The best running back in college football isn't even eligible for the upcoming NFL Draft. Lattimore is a true sophomore who runs like a seasoned NFL veteran. He is simply unstoppable at this level, as he blends a combination of size, speed, and agility that is reminiscent of Herschel Walker. His Heisman campaign will be judged on both his individual performances and South Carolina's team success in the SEC. However, with the Gamecocks shuffling quarterbacks frequently under the direction of the Ol' Ball Coach, Lattimore's play will likely be the primary indicator of his team's success this season.  
• Trent Richardson (Running Back), Alabama - The best player on the nation's number two team has been flying under the radar thus far. The Tide's week four tussle with Arkansas failed to be a showcase game for Richardson, as Bama rolled the Hogs off the field rather easily. Week five will bring a meeting with Florida and hopefully better competition. Richardson has ran through everybody Alabama has played and it has overshadowed Richardson's accomplishments. The aforementioned date with Florida and the blockbuster matchup with LSU's ridiculously stacked defense will be crucial games for Richardson's candidacy. The Tide will likely play in a BCS bowl game, but Richardson needs plenty of wow moments during the course of conference play since his team will be expected to win every time they take the field.

The Debut of the Amateur Status College Football Top 25

This is my third season doing top 25 polls here on AmStat. However, for the first time, I decided against a huge series of prognostications and preseason rankings. My reasoning was simple...they're never right, so why embarrass myself? Why waste time making predictions when the results of actual football games will give us all the indication we need to tell who has the look of a champion, and who just looks good in their uniforms. Four weeks are in the books for this 2011 college football season, and with the last remaining conference opening their league schedule next week (of course, it would be the nauseatingly old-fashioned Big Ten that has yet to start playing conference games), there is no better time to start from square one than week four. At this point, contenders have emerged and pretenders have been exposed. This will probably be the most accurate top 25 AmStat has ever did for the simple fact that I've never been able to build a ranking from scratch with up to four games to use as a reference. I may eventually go back to more expansive preseason coverage in the future, but I will always regard my week four poll as the first one that really matters. Without further ado, the first AmStat Top 25 of the 2011 season.

"The Hat" has three road wins over ranked teams this year

1. LSU Tigers (4-0)
2. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0)
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0)
4. Boise State Broncos (3-0)
5. Stanford Cardinal (4-0)
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0)
7. Wisconsin Badgers (4-0)
8. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-0)
9. Clemson Tigers (4-0)
10. Florida Gators (4-0)
11. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-0)
12. South Florida Bulls (4-0)
13. Virginia Tech Hokies  (4-0)
14. Baylor Bears (3-0)
15. Texas Longhorns (4-0)
16. Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0)
17. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-0)
18. Michigan Wolverines (4-0)
19. Oregon Ducks (3-1)
20. Texas A&M Aggies (2-1)
21. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1)
22. TCU Horned Frogs (3-1)
23. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-1)
24. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-1)
25. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1)

Also Considered...
Kansas State (3-0)
Houston (4-0)
Michigan State (3-1)
Penn State (3-1)
Texas Tech (4-0)

AmStat's College Football Apocalypse

Aggie Land's 12th Man will soon be located in the SEC

Take a journey with me...to the not so distant future of college football. We have awaken from a three-year slumber to find ourselves awaiting the kickoff of the 2015 college football season.

While I was sleeping, it seems as if Texas A&M managed to escape from the Big 12 despite being held hostage by the Baylor athletic program during the 2012 season. According to the conveniently placed copy of Phil Steele's 2015 College Football Preview on my nightstand, Oklahoma bolted the Big 12 soon after A&M, and then the falling dominoes began to to pick up steam. Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State followed the Sooners west, joining what Phil Steele is calling the Pacific 16 Conference.

I flipped to the Big Ten section of Phil's preview, relieved to find that the Big Ten was still called the Big Ten...but I couldn't help but notice that the Big Ten was bigger than ever before. I wasn't even potty-trained the last time the Big Ten was limited to ten teams, but it was still shocking to see the likes of Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State listed as members of the conference.

After analyzing these two "new" conferences, two questions came to mind. Where is the Big 12...and wait...does Baylor still play football? OK, three questions. Does Baylor still exist?

Well let's look at the SEC. Surely a tradition rich institutional conglomerate of the south wouldn't stand for such radical changes...right? OK, wrong once again. Add Louisville along with the Aggies? I guess that's not too bad. Georgia Tech? That actually makes perfect sense given the history of their rivalry with Georgia. Florida State? That makes a ton of sense too! The FSU-Miami rivalry isn't really all that good anymore. Besides, can Miami really be anyone's rival since everyone hates them (except for Uncle Luke and the rest of the 2 Live Crew of course). Miami has a rivalry with the rest of the world.

For a second, I thought the SEC had an odd number of teams, but then I noticed that South Carolina is nowhere to be found in the conference preview, giving them an even 14 programs. I'm pretty sure I know exactly where to find the "Ass Kickin' Chickens" though...

Just as I suspected...the ACC. I've never understood what is keeping the Gamecocks and Yellow Jackets from switching places. Both teams are sleeping giants in college football, and hopeless underachievers on the hardwood. Why not let South Carolina play Clemson in the ACC, and let Georgia Tech and Georgia display their clean old fashioned hate in a conference game as well. I'm sure the Jackets would rather play someone like UAB in week four, rather than getting scraped by the Bulldogs to end the regular season nearly every year. The ACC has some new editions as well. UCF, ECU, and former Big East member USF join the party to give the ACC 14 teams as well.

The chain reaction continues, because if USF is in the ACC...who's in the Big East?


Well, for starters, the Villanova Wildcats are playing football with the big boys now. The Wildcats were a perennial power in the FCS, so who needs USF (sarcasm)!? Plus, the Temple Owls have apparently made a return to Big East football. I'm not sure why they ever left in the first place. For the record, I'm definitely making a trip to Philly for the first Temple-Nova Big East football game, apparently they're playing for something called the Liberty Bell Trophy (I made that up, but you can't deny the brilliance of that idea). Buffalo and UMass also moved to the Big East from the fledgling MAC conference. Never thought I would see the day when the MAC was raided by the Big East, but welcome to the 2015 college football season. West Virginia can no longer duck yearly meetings with their athletic program step-brothers from Marshall, the Thundering Herd has joined the 'Neers in the Big East. Maybe The Herd can even rekindle their old Conference USA rivalry with Cincinnati while they're getting acclimated. At the bottom of the page, a special note reminds us that Georgetown will begin playing football in 2016. This opens the door for the inaugural Big East football championship game to be held at Yankees Stadium in 2016 (I made this up too, but how epic would Syracuse-Pitt for the Big East Title be if they played at Yankees Stadium?) The 2015 Big East isn't all that intimidating, but it has teams, and that's more than what can be said about the Big 12. The search party is still out for Baylor by the way. Maybe those live black bears that they keep on campus got out of their cages. Can a few black bears take out an entire campus?

Baylor found a home in the Mountain West

Wait a second...I think I see something...it looks green...with maybe even a bit of gold trim...By golly we found them! It's Baylor! In the Mountain West no less. TCU, Boise State, Hawaii, BYU, Colorado State, San Diego State, Nevada, Fresno State, New Mexico, and UNLV fill out the ten team league. Through all the hubbub over college football realignment, Baylor managed to land on its feet in a conference that is worthy of an automatic BCS bid in football, and a four-NCAA bid league in college basketball.


Honestly, after the initial shock of it all, the college football apocalypse didn't produce the level of Armageddon that I really expected. Only one conference folded, and a replacement power conference emerged in its place. All that lies ahead in college football does in fact look scary, but when the final domino falls in the year 2015...it will be time to simply play the game of football. It's kickoff Saturday three years into the future, and I can't wait until November to see Michigan-Ohio State live on ESPN Virtual Reality.

Texas A&M Attempting to Ditch the Big 12

Reveille may be heading east to the SEC in 2013

Texas A&M has been the Big 12 Conference's most disgruntled member ever since Nebraska and Colorado's departures to the Big Ten and the newly named Pac-12. The Aggies weren't happy with the fact that the fate of their conference affiliation rested in the hands of their hated rivals, the Texas Longhorns. Last season, the Longhorns "saved" the Big 12 from dissolving by deciding to stay in the conference. The decision to stay was a lucrative one for the Longhorns. Texas landed a deal that has netted them the lion's share of the profits from the Big 12. They also received the green light to launch the Longhorn Network, the cable channel that has begun airing Texas athletic programming 24/7. Now Texas A&M has found a home where they can escape the shadow of the University of Texas conglomerate. The Aggies plan to move to the SEC as the conference's 13th team as early as next fall. The move would leave the Big 12 with only nine teams, and Oklahoma is already publicly exploring their departure options. The loss of Oklahoma would be the fatal blow to the conference, and it looks as though the Sooners have no interest in remaining in a nine team Big 12.

Oddly enough, Baylor, perhaps the conference's weakest member, could actually play the role of Big 12 savior this time around. The SEC has accepted Texas A&M on the condition that the Aggies can exit the Big 12 without legal action. Well here's a shocker! The Baylor Bears object to this idea. It makes sense that Baylor would want to block this move. The athletic program at Baylor is much closer to SMU, than it is to Texas Tech. If Texas A&M sets off a domino effect that leads to the formation of 16 team super conferences, Baylor looks to be one of the teams left out in the cold. If Baylor allows the Aggies to head east, the Bears could find themselves playing in some weird variation of the Mountain West or Conference USA in 2014. That means no more BCS checks for Baylor, and that means Baylor will not let Texas A&M go without a fight. This is a developing story, but it looks as if college football as we know it may be staring at it's dying day. The era of the super conference will soon be upon us. Fortunately for them, the attention starved folks at Texas A&M can at least claim to be trendsetters for a change.

The First Impression: Thoughts on the Opening Week of College Football

First impressions are important in every aspect of life, but they hold a different level of importance in college football. Championship dreams can be dashed over a bad first impression, and starting jobs can be lost if a player doesn't show he has what it takes in week one. Certain players made good first impressions this past weekend, others can't wait for week two to role around for their chance at redemption. 

Russell Wilson is a Heisman contender in Madison

Robert Griffin III is college football's newest household name

• Russell Wilson made quite the first impression on Wisconsin fans on Thursday night, and he scared the hell out of the rest of the Big Ten in the process. Everyone knew the Badgers were returning one of the nation's best running attacks, but how Wilson would mesh with his new team was an unknown variable. From what we saw on Thursday night, the Badgers are a national contender. Wilson, and the rest of the Badger backfield, was unstoppable against an overwhelmed UNLV team. The Badgers have always been able to run the ball, but they have never had a quarterback who is dynamic as Wilson. Wisconsin will be more dangerous every week as Wilson becomes more acclimated to his new team. Wilson's first impression has made the Badgers the unquestioned team to beat in the Big Ten.
• The night after Russell Wilson became a player of the year candidate at Camp Randall, TCU and Baylor gave us our first game of the year candidate. Their were positive first impressions all-around, but Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III joined Wilson in the early season Heisman conversation by shredding a vaunted TCU defense on the way to a 50-48 victory. TCU debuted Casey Pachall as their new quarterback that same night. Despite the loss, Pachall proved that the Frogs are in safe hands, and that a double-digit win total is still a reasonable expectation for the upcoming season. If you didn't catch TCU and Baylor on Friday night, you will see it on ESPN Classic likely sooner than later. It was that good.
• Dayne Crist made a good enough impression on Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly to open the season as the team's starting quarterback. His first impression for the 2011 season was so underwhelming that he kept that job for a full 30 minutes of football. Tommy Rees relieved Crist at halftime and will be the starter this Saturday against Michigan. Who did make a good first impression for the Irish? Michael Floyd's 12 receptions and 154 yards receiving were more than enough to endear himself to fans in South Bend. Unfortunately, instead of Notre Dame being good, it seems as if only Michael Floyd is good. Who will the Irish turn to when teams decide to make someone besides Floyd win the game for the Irish? Things could get really interesting in South Bend this year.
• Oregon's first impression for the 2011 season looked very similar to its final impression from the 2010 season. Once again, the Ducks looked physically outmatched by a team from the mighty SEC. This time it was LSU that outclassed the Ducks. Oregon may be unstoppable in the Pac-12, but their forays against major programs outside of the conference have not went well. Oregon lost the Rose Bowl to Ohio State, the BCS Championship to Auburn, and now their regular season showdown with the Tigers. Oregon will probably be in the hunt to return to the BCS once again in November, but what will they do when they get there? It seems likely that they will lose.
• Boise State has made a sparkling first impression for the second year in a row. The Broncos were clearly the better team in their marquee matchup with the Georgia Bulldogs. If Boise State is just a harmless mid-major, why is it that their neutral site games are always so far away from Boise? Virginia Tech in Arlington? Georgia at the GEORGIA Dome? Let's be serious. Boise State is one of the top 10 programs playing football right now. Is there anyone brave enough to at least go to Denver for a neutral tilt with the boys in blue? I won't even ask for a team to actually play on Boise's campus. That's unfathomable for any of the prestigious schools from the Pac-12 or the Big East (extreme sarcasm). It will be fun to watch the creative way that the BCS keeps Boise State out of the national championship this year. With Nevada rebuilding and TCU reloading, Boise will likely cruise to an undefeated season. They are currently ranked fourth and fifth in the two major polls, but it will only be a matter of time before chirping about their strength of schedule will foreshadow their inexplicable fall from title contention.

Notre Dame Makes a Switch: Rees to Lead the Irish Against Michigan

Two weeks ago, Notre Dame football was supposedly back. Sports media pundits around the country called for double-digit wins from the Irish. Even head coach Brian Kelly declared that the team's goal was BCS or bust. Today, the Fighting Irish are 0-1 and have recently benched their senior quarterback.

Saturday afternoon, the Irish took the field ranked as the #16 team in the nation. Starting quarterback, and NFL prospect, Dayne Crist promptly led his team down inside the five-yard line against a South Florida team that most people had dismissed as a threat to the mighty Irish - and then it all fell apart. Jonas Gray fumbled on the goal line and the Bulls returned the miscue 96 yards for a touchdown. Instead of jumping out to a quick lead at home, the Irish were knocked off balance for the rest of the half, going into the break trailing 16-0.

Good luck Tommy, you might need it.

When Notre Dame reemerged for the second half (after a more than two hour delay due to inclement weather), they were led out by Tommy Rees, a redshirt sophomore who saw action last year while Crist recovered from injury. Rees faired better than Crist, throwing for 296 yards and two touchdowns. He also threw two interceptions, but his production could not be denied. Notre Dame outscored USF 20-7 with Rees in the game, and it led fans to wonder if the Irish would have fared better than their eventual 23-20 loss if Rees had played the whole game.

Notre Dame won't get a mulligan to play USF again. They kissed their national ranking goodbye when Tuesday's rankings were released, and their BCS bandwagon looks to have tons of space on it as of this moment. However, Tommy Rees will indeed get a chance to impact a game from start to finish this week. Rees has been named the starting quarterback for Notre Dame's clash with Michigan.

Don't expect Rees to be overwhelmed. Rees led the Irish to victory at the Coliseum against USC, and Notre Dame routed Miami in the Sun Bowl with Rees under center. Still, it is worth noting that the expected atmosphere at the Big House should be unlike anything Rees has ever seen. Well, actually the scene at the Big House will be unlike anything anyone has ever seen. Rees will take the field as the opposing quarterback in Michigan Stadium's first ever night game. The crowd is expected to be one of the Wolverine's biggest ever (remember that Michigan has the biggest stadium in the country), and the game will be on primetime national television.

With all those factors being considered, it is obviously not an ideal time to break in a new quarterback. As mentioned before, Rees isn't completely new to being a starter. He performed more than admirably as a replacement last year, but this will be his first time starting with a healthy Dayne Crist waiting on the sideline.

Despite the change, the quarterback situation in South Bend is still very much in a state of flux. If Rees lays an egg against Michigan. Dayne Crist will likely start in week three against nationally ranked Michigan State. Crist has his fair share of sympathizers. He played badly against USF, but he did not show complete ineptitude. It should also be noted that his bad day came in the midst of a lightning storm that turned the playing field into a marsh. But now what if the high scoring Spartans run the Irish off of the field in week three? What if the likes of MSU's Jerel Worthy, Max Bullough, and Chris Norman dominate the Irish offensive line and render Crist useless? Will Brian Kelly go back to Tommy Rees? That would give Rees his second start on the road against Pittsburgh, a team that always plays Notre Dame tough.(Pitt beat the Irish in 2009 and lost by six last year). Would the Irish even be favored against Pitt at 0-3?

It's no coincidence that the last paragraph included so many question marks. If the Fighting Irish don't find some solid answers for their quarterback questions, they could be 0-4 before they see a favorable matchup (their fifth game is on the road against Purdue, it's pretty generous to call them a "favorable" opponent). A week ago, Notre Dame was talking BCS. The conversation has shifted to "Crist or Rees?" in a matter of days.

It's hard to agree with Brian Kelly's decision to change quarterbacks after one game. It seems very early to deem a quarterback ineffective after a single unflattering appearance that was highly influenced by bad weather. Kelly allowed the two young men to battle throughout the spring and summer, and settled on Crist as his starter less two weeks before opening day. Kelly has now reneged on that decision less than three weeks later.

One could argue that this isn't an ideal way to build a rapport with a team that was recruited mostly by former coach Charlie Weiss, but this isn't Kelly's first go around with using multiple quarterbacks. While coaching at Cincinnati in 2009, Kelly juggled quarterbacks Tony Pike and Zach Collaros with much success after Collaros emerged following an injury to Pike. That team won the Big East and played in the Sugar Bowl. Unfortunately, neither of Kelly's current options seem to possess the talent of Pike (currently in the NFL) or Collaros (2010 1st Team All Big East). Over time, the nation realized that Kelly had two very talented quarterbacks at Cincinnati. This year, Kelly may just simply have two quarterbacks.

Only time will tell if a star will emerge from this murky situation in South Bend, but if the Irish still plan to make a run at the BCS this year, the answer to all of Notre Dame's quarterback questions must be Tommy Rees.