THE SNUBS
- Virginia Tech - The Hokies are once again heartbroken on Selection Sunday, but this time I don't think V-Tech has too much to complain about. Seth Greenberg's team was swept by a undermanned Virginia team, dropped a game to Georgia Tech, and loss their two final regular season games to a pair of ACC bubble teams (Boston College and Clemson). This team had good wins, but their losses were crippling.
- Colorado - The Buffs have to be sick that they aren't in the field. They beat Kansas State three times, along with taking down Texas and Mizzou. The losses to San Francisco, Oklahoma, and Iowa State ultimately left them at home. I would assume that CU coach Tad Boyle will be putting a little more effort into his non-conference scheduling in the future. Games against Georgia and Harvard (both losses by the way) were not enough to carry a 10-9 Big 12 record.
- St. Mary's - The Gaels have to be the most confused team after tonight. They have good wins, a strong RPI, and one terrible loss (San Diego). Apparently, the selection committee decided that there wasn't enough room in the tournament for both Utah St. and St. Mary's. The BracketBuster loss to the Aggies ended up doing the Gaels in. Still, most people thought St. Mary's was a lock to get in.
- Harvard - It's not very fair that the Crimson didn't even get considered for an at-large birth. They beat two bubble teams (Colorado and Boston College) and split with Princeton, but then again, Harvard could have earned an automatic bid by simply avoiding a loss to Yale.
- Boston College - The Eagles had plenty of decent wins and only one bad loss (Yale), but there was no eye-catching win in the profile. Texas A&M was a good win, but the Aggies proved to not be the top 15 team that people thought they were. This left BC with nothing to hang their hat on.
- Alabama - The Tide played Seton Hall, Iowa, and Providence in the non-conference this year, these aren't teams that will kill your RPI...unless you lose to all of them like Alabama did. Another word of advice for Anthony Grant, scheduling a SWAC team is like feeding rat poison to your RPI. The Tide fed themselves two doses (Alabama A&M, Florida A&M). Playing Toledo didn't help either (the Rockets finished 3-28).
THE QUESTION MARKS
- UAB - The Blazers won a whopping ZERO games against the RPI Top 50. Why are they in the tournament?
- VCU - The Rams have a decent profile. Wins over UCLA, George Mason, and Old Dominion are impressive, but the Rams don't compare favorably to teams like Colorado and St. Mary's.
EAST REGIONAL
(1)Ohio State vs (16)Texas San Antonio/Alcorn State
Neither of these teams have a chance in H-E-double hockey sticks of competing with Ohio State. NEXT GAME PLEASE!
(8)George Mason vs (9)Villanova
George Mason had a great season and got a terrible draw by landing Villanova in the first round. The Wildcats have definitely been struggling, but they have too much talent to drop a first round game to Mason.
(5)West Virginia vs (12)UAB/Clemson
I expect Clemson to take out UAB and solidify the Blazers' status as the worst at-large bid ever. The 'Neers shouldn't have too much trouble with Clemson, the Tigers are a perfect example of the mediocrity that will be evident throughout this year's first round.
(4)Kentucky vs (13)Princeton
Princeton is a solid team, but the four-seeds in this tournament uncharacteristically talented teams. A team that is dripping with athleticism like Kentucky won't be upset by a backdoor cutting team from Princeton.
(6)Xavier vs (11)Marquette
Upset Alert!!! Marquette and Xavier is one of the best games the first weekend has to offer. This game will be extremely physical, and a hard fought battle. Unfortunately for the X, Marquette has proven too many times that they can scrap out wins against the country's best teams.
(3)Syracuse vs (14)Indiana State
Unless Larry Bird finds a time machine that restores youth and NCAA eligibility, the Sycamores are going to get blitzed by the Orange.
(7)Washington vs (10)Georgia
How weird is it that the Pac-10 tournament champion is playing in a 7-10 matchup? The Huskies will have a tough time with the Dawgs, but their guards she provide the difference. Suspended UW guard Venoy Overton has been reinstated and he will play for the Huskies.
(2)North Carolina vs (15)Long Island
Long Island could have given a team some trouble if they could have entered the tournament as a 14-seed. Unfortunately, they didn't. Now the Blackbirds face an impossible task. Just try to keep it close LIU.
WEST
(1)Duke vs (16)Hampton
Duke's going to win.
(8)Michigan vs (9)Tennessee
Michigan can beat any team in the country when they are hitting threes. Tennessee can beat any team in the country if they simply stay focused. I give the advantage to Tennessee. There's a slight chance that Bruce Pearl will not be coaching the Vols next year, it's important that his team gives a good showing in order to belabor the point that Bruce is worth the impending NCAA trouble that will come after the season as a result of his previous actions.
(5)Arizona vs (12)Memphis
This is one of the best matchups in the entire field. These two teams will score a ton of points and play a very fast paced game. Derrick Williams of Arizona may be the one problem that Memphis won't be able to solve inside, as I expect the 'Cats to come out on top after a thrilling contest.
(4)Texas vs (13)Oakland
Going into the tournament, Oakland was a trendy 13-seed upset pick (if those even exist). Now, despite the talents of future NBA player Keith Benson, the Golden Grizzlies chances seem dim with Texas paired up with them in the bracket. Seriously, look at the 4-seeds in this tournament! How did one seed line get so stacked?
(6)Cincinnati vs (11)Missouri
Mizzou is my candidate to break 100 points in a game that doesn't include a seed in the teens. The Bearcats dont have the shooting to keep up with the rapid offensive flow of the Tigers. Missouri will control tempo and score, while Cincy will settle for bad shots, and go home early. Im predicting my second 6-11 upset in as many regions.
(3)Connecticut vs (14)Bucknell
The funny thing about this game is that if Kemba Walker didn't play, Bucknell may be the better team of the two, but Walker is playing and Bucknell doesn't have a shot as long as he is.
(7)Temple vs (10)Penn State
Temple is, by far, a better team than Penn State. However, Talor Battle is the type of player that could see a lot of face time in the "One Shining Moment" video three weeks from now. The Nittany Lions are playing too well, and are too happy to even be dancing to go home early. Teams like Penn State, that are playing with nothing to lose, are extremely dangerous in the early rounds of the tournament. Temple goes down against a Penn State team that will be gambling with the house's money all weekend.
(2)San Diego State vs (15)Northern Colorado
San Diego State is miffed by the fact that so many people were critical of their seed in this tournament. Look for the Aztecs to make an example out of Northern Colorado. When a seed this high has motivation to play from the opening tip, the lower seeded opponent ends up getting blown out the gym.
SOUTHWEST
(1)Kansas vs (16)Boston
I am trying really hard to find some sort of statistic or fact that would make one of these 1-16 games interesting, but I just can't find anything, and I don't want to make anything up. That's just bad journalism. Kansas will win by a lot, even though Boston is probably the best 16-seed in the tourney.
(8)UNLV vs (9)Illinois
This game should be called the Lon Kruger classic. Kruger shaped both of these programs into perennial conference title contenders. Subsequently, the two teams' style of play is still very similar to each other's. This game may look like an intense scrimmage between two of the same team. Luckily, both teams will be wearing uniforms. I like the athletic, gritty, rebounding team in orange and blue to beat the athletic, gritty, rebounding team in red and black. This is one of the tournaments biggest toss ups.
(5)Vanderbilt vs (12)Richmond
It just isn't March without a five knocking out a 12 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Have no fear because Richmond is here, and Vandy may never know what hit them. Richmond has excellent guard play and will be able to match John Jenkins shot for shot. The Spiders' Kevin Anderson is the primary marksman who will try to out-duel Jenkins from beyond the arch.
(4)Louisville vs (13)Morehead State
Morehead State was a team that I expected to be able to really push their opponent as a 13-seed. This was before I knew that the tournament's 4-seeds were all going to be legit title contenders. Kenneth Faried will still have a dominant impact on the glass for Morehead, but I can't see Louisville losing in the first round fresh off of a Big East Championship game appearance.
(6)Georgetown vs (11)VCU/USC
I don't think VCU should have been in the tournament. They got one of my two question marked bids for this tournament, but now that they are here, I like their draw. I expect VCU to sneak past a very young USC team, before eventually beating Georgetown as well. The Hoyas stumbled into the NCAA tournament this year, and I believe they will be sent packing early once again. I don't trust Georgetown in the postseason.
(3)Purdue vs (14)St. Peter's
If Purdue makes it to the building on time, they will win the game and send St. Peter's home. However, St. Pete's has plenty on their side. Their campus is located in Jersey City, and I'm sure those players are trying to stay off campus for as long as possible before they get back.
(7)Texas A&M vs (10)Florida State
This game matches two of the most inconsistent teams in the country. Both teams have had runs where they look amazing, and they also have had stretches where they look as if they don't belong in the tournament. I'm picking Texas A&M based off their talent and the possibility of them turning into a Top 15 team again.
(2)Notre Dame vs (15)Akron
Don't laugh when you read this, but the MAC Champs from Akron will have a good shot against Notre Dame. I won't sit here and predict the Irish to lose, but Akron has the the size to deal with the Fighting Irish in the paint. The Zips probably won't have an answer for Ben Hansbrough, and that's why I wont call for an upset.
SOUTHEAST
(1)Pittsburgh vs (16)North Carolina-Asheville/Arkansas-Little Rock
If it means anything, Little Rock will probably win the play-in game, but neither team will be able to provide a challenge to Pitt. This will not be the year that a top seed loses to a 16-seed.
(8)Butler vs (9)Old Dominion
It's a shame that two of the most talented mid-majors in this tournament will be playing each other in the first round. Both of these teams advanced past the first round last year (obviously, Butler went all the way to the the final). This will be one of the best games of the first round. Both teams are extremely talented and well coached, but Butler has more big game experience, and an enough talent and toughness to advance once again. This is another toss up game that could go both ways.
(5)Kansas State vs (12)Utah State
K-State is one of the hottest teams entering this tournament, and Utah State is seemingly always on a long winning streak. The game will be close, but it will be important to remember that Utah State doesn't play top competition regularly (not even in the non-conference schedule). The talent of the 'Cats will eventually overwhelm the Aggies, but not before Tai Wesley works out the K-State frontcourt.
(4)Wisconsin vs (13)Belmont
Wisconsin is unbeatable at home in Madison, but the Badgers won't be playing anymore games there this season. Away from home, Wisconsin could lose to a lot of teams in this tournament, Belmont included. The Bruins may actually be more athletic than Wisconsin, which is a rarity for a 4-13 contest. I've said previously that this is the strongest crop of 4-seeds that this tournament has seen, but I think Belmont is ripe to pull an upset over a Wisconsin team that is a totally different team on a neutral court.
(6)St. John's vs (11)Gonzaga
This is a very popular upset pick, especially among people that believe that the DJ Kennedy injury will cripple the Johnnies. I am not one of those people. The Red Storm are still a very dangerous team. Dwight Hardy is the type of scoring guard that can lead teams on long runs in the tournament, and the Storm's pressure defense will be nearly impossible to prepare for on short notice. Gonzaga will have a few mismatches on the inside against St. John's but they lack the type of scorer that the Red Storm have in Hardy. The Johnnies will be playing in Kennedy's honor, and they won't get sent home by the Zags.
(3)BYU vs (14)Wofford
The Cougars lost their chance to be a Final Four contender when Brandon Davie broke the honor code and was lost for the season. Still, BYU is a very talented team that will be able to get past Wofford. The game won't be a walkover though, as the Terriers have plenty of talented players that will test BYU on both ends of the court.
(7)UCLA vs (10)Michigan State
Michigan State has quite the reputation for turning up their play in the tournament, and after watching Sparty dismantle Purdue in the Big Ten tournament, the precedent has been set for how well this team can play. I think the Spartans got a great draw for this tournament, and I expect UCLA to play like deer in the headlights against an experienced Final Four team. Sparty will handle the Bruins rather easily, unless the bizzaro squad that got blown out by Iowa earlier this year shows up, but I doubt that happens.
(2)Florida vs (15)UC Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara is a perfect example of why conferences like the Big West should send their regular season champ to the big dance, and not the tournament champ. Long Beach State may have had a chance against the red hot gators, but UCSB does not. Florida will simply overwhelm the Gauchos.
OK, that was actually pretty exhausting, but AmStat will be back to do the same thing for round two.
SOUTHEAST
(1)Pittsburgh vs (16)North Carolina-Asheville/Arkansas-Little Rock
If it means anything, Little Rock will probably win the play-in game, but neither team will be able to provide a challenge to Pitt. This will not be the year that a top seed loses to a 16-seed.
(8)Butler vs (9)Old Dominion
It's a shame that two of the most talented mid-majors in this tournament will be playing each other in the first round. Both of these teams advanced past the first round last year (obviously, Butler went all the way to the the final). This will be one of the best games of the first round. Both teams are extremely talented and well coached, but Butler has more big game experience, and an enough talent and toughness to advance once again. This is another toss up game that could go both ways.
(5)Kansas State vs (12)Utah State
K-State is one of the hottest teams entering this tournament, and Utah State is seemingly always on a long winning streak. The game will be close, but it will be important to remember that Utah State doesn't play top competition regularly (not even in the non-conference schedule). The talent of the 'Cats will eventually overwhelm the Aggies, but not before Tai Wesley works out the K-State frontcourt.
(4)Wisconsin vs (13)Belmont
Wisconsin is unbeatable at home in Madison, but the Badgers won't be playing anymore games there this season. Away from home, Wisconsin could lose to a lot of teams in this tournament, Belmont included. The Bruins may actually be more athletic than Wisconsin, which is a rarity for a 4-13 contest. I've said previously that this is the strongest crop of 4-seeds that this tournament has seen, but I think Belmont is ripe to pull an upset over a Wisconsin team that is a totally different team on a neutral court.
(6)St. John's vs (11)Gonzaga
This is a very popular upset pick, especially among people that believe that the DJ Kennedy injury will cripple the Johnnies. I am not one of those people. The Red Storm are still a very dangerous team. Dwight Hardy is the type of scoring guard that can lead teams on long runs in the tournament, and the Storm's pressure defense will be nearly impossible to prepare for on short notice. Gonzaga will have a few mismatches on the inside against St. John's but they lack the type of scorer that the Red Storm have in Hardy. The Johnnies will be playing in Kennedy's honor, and they won't get sent home by the Zags.
(3)BYU vs (14)Wofford
The Cougars lost their chance to be a Final Four contender when Brandon Davie broke the honor code and was lost for the season. Still, BYU is a very talented team that will be able to get past Wofford. The game won't be a walkover though, as the Terriers have plenty of talented players that will test BYU on both ends of the court.
(7)UCLA vs (10)Michigan State
Michigan State has quite the reputation for turning up their play in the tournament, and after watching Sparty dismantle Purdue in the Big Ten tournament, the precedent has been set for how well this team can play. I think the Spartans got a great draw for this tournament, and I expect UCLA to play like deer in the headlights against an experienced Final Four team. Sparty will handle the Bruins rather easily, unless the bizzaro squad that got blown out by Iowa earlier this year shows up, but I doubt that happens.
(2)Florida vs (15)UC Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara is a perfect example of why conferences like the Big West should send their regular season champ to the big dance, and not the tournament champ. Long Beach State may have had a chance against the red hot gators, but UCSB does not. Florida will simply overwhelm the Gauchos.
OK, that was actually pretty exhausting, but AmStat will be back to do the same thing for round two.
