Tuesday, December 13, 2011

The 2011 AmStat College Football Playoffs...That Will Never Happen

The holiday season is the time where we as people take time to appreciate all that we are thankful for, but as football fans, it is the time of year where we gripe about the one thing that we don't have that is on our Christmas list every year - a college football playoff. This year is no different, and for this reason, AmStat would like to present to you the Christmas miracle that is the 2011 BCS College Football Playoffs (that will of course never happen in real life because university presidents are the greediest people on earth).  

Here's the format for the BCS Playoffs. College sports are always centered around the top 25 for the entire regular season but then they quickly throw the importance of the number out of the window during the postseason. In AmStat's version of the playoffs, the top 25 matters more than ever because the top 25 teams qualify for the BCS playoffs (I know this is too many teams, but since we're never going to have a playoff anyway, allow me to take some poetic license). The first round of the bracket will consist of play-in games on the home field of the higher seed. Second round games will also be held on the campus of the higher seed. Teams will be reseeded after the first two rounds (a brilliant idea that only the NHL uses). The final eight teams will play in BCS bowl games from that point on. All the teams that were knocked out of the playoffs on campus are still eligible to play in bowl games once they are eliminated (the bowl system has been preserved!). This setup will require that the BCS will need to add two more bowl games. The logical choices would be the Cotton Bowl (this will probably eventually happen in real life) and the Capital One Citrus Bowl (The Citrus Bowl's BCS inclusion was contingent on adding "Citrus" back to the name because I HATE sponsor-only bowl names). One site will also host the national championship game just as in the current system. The bowl sites will be on rotation for hosting quarterfinals, semis, and the final. For logistic reasons. The site hosting the National Championship game will always host a quarterfinal BCS game. All of this sound reasonable so far? Good. One last concession, the Heisman ceremony has to be moved to Sunday night to allow candidates to play in their first round playoff games. Now we settle things on the field.

*All times EST of course

Playoff upsets? Count me in!
#25 Auburn at #8 Kansas State, 12/10 1pm on ESPNU 
UPSET CITY! Tigers win 30-24. Auburn isn't giving up their national title without a fight. We've had a playoff for one year and we've already seen a 25-seed pull off an upset.
#23 West Virginia at #10 Wisconsin, 12/10 1pm on ESPN
No such luck for the Mountaineers on ESPN though. The Badgers run right through the Mounties 42-14. Montee Ball scores three touchdowns, but doesn't grab any extra Heisman votes because the ballots are due before the noon kickoff.
#24 Texas at #9 South Carolina, 12/10 3:30pm on CBS
The road teams are on a roll, because Texas is rolling South Carolina on "The Deuce" (remember when this was ESPN's nickname for ESPN2). Case McCoy plays one of those games where he looks like Colt and South Carolina remembers that their South Carolina. All of a sudden the final score reads 27-10 in favor of Texas.
#21 Southern Miss at #12 Baylor, 12/10 3:30pm on FXRobert Griffin III goes nuts against a Southern Miss team that would have much rather just played in the Liberty Bowl (or whatever bowl you play in when you win the Conference USA). Bears win 52-14. This was a definite waste of Gus Johnson in a playoff situation.
#20 Nebraska at #13 Michigan, 12/10 3:30pm on ABC
Rematches are bound to happen, and this isn't a bad game to see twice. Nebraska travels to Ann Arbor for the second time this year and falls short yet again, but they keep it a lot closer this time. Wolverines win 31-28.
David Wilson makes the Hokies a tough out in a playoff
#22 Penn State at #11 Virginia Tech, 12/10 4:30pm on ESPN
Virginia Tech cruises past Penn State 31-10. David Wilson's speed is too much for the Nittany Lions to contain, and then there's the part about them not having a good quarterback. That hurt too.
#19 Houston at #14 Oklahoma, 12/10 9pm on ESPN
Who says the regular season doesn't mean anything? If Houston wins the CUSA title, they have a bye this week. But they lost, and now they're in Norman getting hammered by the Sooners. Cougars drop their second straight game, 49-28.
#18 TCU at #15 Clemson, 12/10 8pm on ABC
These two teams met in Death Valley in 2009 and TCU left with a 14-10 win. Clemson may have won the ACC this year, but it seems as if the only good team the Tigers can beat is Virginia Tech. Clemson turns out to be more cub than tiger and TCU wins a close one, 24-21. I respect the Frogs enough to not even call it an upset.
#17 Michigan State at #16 Georgia, 12/10 8pm on CBS
This game will actually take place in real life on January 2nd in the Outback Bowl, but as a part of the BCS playoffs, the game has already taken place. The Spartans did not repeat their embarrassing performance from last year against Alabama against another SEC opponent, but they did fall short once again. This time losing 27-21 between the hedges. 
Tyler Wilson is a legit star at QB
#13 Michigan at #6 Arkansas, 12/17 12pm on CBS
The second round of the playoffs kicks off with the first game of a CBS triple-header. The Hogs take care of Michigan in a game that would have been much more interesting if Ryan Mallett had stayed in school for one more year. Fortunately, Tyler Wilson may be just as good as Mallett. The final score reads 30-20 Hogs.
#11 Virginia Tech at #10 Wisconsin, 12/17 3:30pm on ESPN
Wisconsin will carry the Big Ten banner in the BCS after dispatching the Hokies in the first true defensive struggle of the tournament. No touchdowns for Montee Ball for the first time this season as Wisconsin wins 14-10.
#16 Georgia at #4 Stanford, 12/17 3:30pm on ABC
Stanford's dominant offensive line is finally starting to get some much needed recognition after manhandling the Georgia defense on The Farm. Andrew Luck leaves the field after his last home game with a 31-13 win and a clean jersey. 
#18 TCU at #3 Oklahoma State, 12/17 3:30pm on FX
We still haven't got a chance to properly utilize the vocal talents of Gus Johnson in the BCS playoffs. The most excitable broadcaster in sports is stuck with a laugher. The Pokes roll through TCU 42-17.
#25 Auburn at #1 LSU, 12/17 3:30pm on CBS
LSU beat Auburn by 35 earlier in the season. This 42-10 drubbing was just for good measure. The punt return for a touchdown, interception return for a touchdown, and the forced fumble from Tyrann Mathieu during this game have him firmly in the lead for the BCS Playoff's Most Outstanding Player award.
Why not go for it? Blake Bell is 6'5 245lbs
#14 Oklahoma at #5 Oregon, 12/17 8pm on ESPN
It's hard to imagine the Sooners as a Cinderella team, but what else can you call them after bouncing Oregon 50-49 in Autzen after going for two in overtime with Blake the "Belldozer" Bell bursting into the end zone on a QB draw.
#24 Texas at #2 Alabama, 12/17 8pm on CBS
CBS is the real winner of the BCS Playoffs so far. They're wrapping up a day of coverage that included the top two teams in the country (LSU and Alabama) and guests appearances from two of college football's most watched teams (Michigan and Texas). Someone's ratings just went through the roof. As for the primetime finale, Texas made a game of it but couldn't upset Alabama. 24-17 Roll Tide.
#12 Baylor at #7 Boise State 12/17 8pm on ESPN2
Baylor began this season with an upset victory at TCU, and they can add a Boise State road victory notch to their belt as well after defeating the Broncos 38-31. Robert Griffin III is rising to the expectations that have come with being a Heisman Trophy winner, and this game just about solidifies the fact that he won't return to Baylor next year.
#1 LSU vs #14 Oklahoma - AT&T Cotton Bowl, 12/24 12pm on FOX
The BCS quarterfinals are underway as the Cotton Bowl moves to Christmas Eve this year in our latest edition of "Throwing Tradition Out the Window!" but I'm sure they don't mind welcoming the number one team in the country to Jerry World for a date with the Sooners. This is the most potent offense that the Tigers have played all year and it takes a daring comeback to get by Oklahoma in their toughest test of the season. Tigers escape Arlington with 28-24 win.
#2 Alabama vs #12 Baylor - Capital One Citrus Bowl, 12/24 4pm on ESPN
Montee Ball had a rough time in our playoff
Baylor's amazing run finally ends in the Citrus Bowl. The Tide are able to contain RG3 in the second half to pull away late and secure a 38-24 victory. Griffin announces after the game that he is returning to Baylor, triggering a chorus of boos from Dolphins fans at the Citrus Bowl who were hoping to see him as their starting quarterback in 2012.
#3 Oklahoma State vs #10 Wisconsin - Rose Bowl presented by Vizio, 12/25 4pm on ESPN
The Cowboys don't have any problems with Wisconsin as they win their first ever BCS bowl by the score of 38-17. Montee Ball ends his season with two consecutive games without a touchdown.
#4 Stanford vs #6 Arkansas - AllState Sugar Bowl, 12/25 8:30pm on ESPN
Arkansas may be the team that benefits from this playoff the most. The Razorbacks enter into this game with two losses against the top two teams in the country. They should be able to make the claim of being the third best team in the country. A plus-one playoff system leaves the Razorbacks out in the cold, the current system leaves them out of the BCS all together. The playoff system has them beating Stanford 30-27 in the Sugar Bowl and one game away from playing for the national championship.
#2 Alabama vs #3 Oklahoma State - Discover Orange Bowl, 12/31 4pm on ESPN
In a season that has left us with one undefeated team, the question of who's number two has been asked with more volume than any other in the country. When both teams met on the field, it was Oklahoma State who emerged victorious, 24-20. As it turns out, it isn't always the best idea to assume that one team is better than the other. What a novel concept.
#1 LSU vs #6 Arkansas - Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, 12/31  8:30pm on ESPN
Even with a playoff the Honey Badger and LSU won it all
With Oklahoma State awaiting the winner in the national championship game, Arkansas and LSU battled in the desert. LSU forced turnovers, but Arkansas continued to make plays. In the end...the Tigers survived once again. Les Miles and his team held off Arkansas despite the Hogs playing their best game of the year. A blocked field goal in the waning moments would prove to be the difference for the Tigers. LSU advances home to New Orleans after a 35-32 victory.
#1 LSU vs #3 Oklahoma State - BCS National Championship, 12/9 8:30pm on ESPN
LSU wins the national championship anyway, 27-24. Still, don't you feel better that we arrived to that conclusion this way?

AmStat's College Football Bowl Rundown

The doling out of the Heisman Trophy always marks the beginning of college football fans' awkward anticipation for the upcoming bowl season. The period is kicked off by the annual bickering over who was invited into the BCS (Virginia Tech playing in the Sugar Bowl has to be illegal in some sort of way). Then their is the fake excitement over supposedly marquee pairings that take place in obscure bowl games (This year we have a tie for this distinction between Ohio State vs Florida in the Gator Bowl and Notre Dame vs Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl). Shortly after these topics have been mulled over, we start to wonder why the BCS doesn't just have a 16 team playoff. Unfortunately, right when we start to realize that the entire bowl system is corrupt and immoral, the ESPN conglomerate of networks (with special singular appearances from FOX and CBS) bombards us with enough quality college football to keep our heads spinning until it's time to start reading college hoops Bracketology columns in February. Every year around this time, ESPN runs their gigantic incarnation of a bowl season office pool. This year the mega contest is called "Bowl Mania" and I'm not certain, but I think if Florida International beats Marshall in an empty baseball stadium in Tampa Bay...I win a Corvette (I could be mistaken of course). Anyways, Bowl Mania requires you to pick the winners of all 35 bowl games and attach a confidence number to each pick. The most confident pick garners a 35, and the game that you picked based on the ferocity of the teams' logos because you've never heard of either of the schools will get an uno (Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State will be this game for a lot of people). Because most of the people that read this blog are addicted to gambling, it is only fair that I share my picks with the world, but I will also offer the disclaimer that this may not be helpful to most hardcore gamblers because ESPN's bowl mania does not require you to pick against the spread for their contest. This will probably differ from the rules of your local barber shop bookie or the sports nerd from human resources that treats his cubicle like a Mississippi Riverboat. I apologize in advance. This is AmStat's Bowl Mania entry...share the loot if this makes you any.

*All start times EST

Brock Osweiler
35pts. #7 Boise State (11-1) over Arizona State (6-6) - Maaco Bowl Las Vegas, 12/22 8pm on ESPN
Boise State feels that they belong in the BCS, and they are absolutely right. When big-time schools get snubbed, they mail it in in their bowl games. When Non-AQs get snubbed, they show up for their bowl games ticked off. Arizona State's Brock Osweiler is an NFL prospect at quarterback for the Sun Devils, but the Broncos will be looking to make an example out of ASU, and Osweiler doesn't have enough weapons around him to do anything about it.
34pts. #18 TCU (10-2) over Louisiana Tech (8-4) - San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, 12/21 8pm on ESPN
That bowl sponsorship is definitely a mouthful, but there's only one thing you need to know about Louisiana Tech. Their best player is their punter. Ray Guy award winner Ryan Allen will get plenty of work while the Frogs beat down the Bulldogs in San Diego.
33pts. #6 Arkansas (10-2) over #8 Kansas State (10-2) - AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic, 1/6 8pm on FOX
Remember the good old days when the Cotton Bowl was played on New Years Day at the actual Cotton Bowl Stadium? Those days are long gone. This year's edition will see Jerry Jones welcome his alma mater (Arkansas) to "Jerry World" for a primetime showdown nearly a week into the new year. Kansas State has had a magical season, but this will be a tall order, as they will essentially be playing Arkansas in their home away from home. K-State did play well against Oklahoma State, a team that has similar fire power to Arkansas, but I just don't see this one being close.
32pts. #14 Oklahoma (9-3) over Iowa (7-5) - Insight Bowl, 12/30 10pm on ESPN
Luckily for coach Kirk Ferentz and the rest of the Iowa Hawkeyes, most of the country will be fast asleep by the time the Sooners finish pounding the Hawkeyes. Iowa got a bad draw during a down year by having to play a very talented team looking to salvage their season.
RG3 may be playing his final game at the Alamo Bowl
31pts. #12 Baylor (9-3) over Washington (7-5) - Valero Alamo Bowl, 12/29 9pm on ESPN
If Baylor coach Art Briles was smart, he would bench newly crowned Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III...because if RG3 gets loose against Washington's shaky defense, that may be all he needs to cash in on his current first round draft stock. I'm not sure why I don't have this game higher. The Huskies don't have a shot.
30pts. Cincinnatti (9-3) over Vanderbilt (6-6) - AutoZone Liberty Bowl, 12/31 3:30pm on ABC
This is the high confidence pick that I am already regretting. Vanderbilt may have won the Big East this year if they played in the conference. I may have gotten too wrapped up in the overall records here. Still Cincinnati has a ton of skill position talent and a wealth of big game experience that the Commodores will be lacking. This is the game that will probably ruin my entry.
29pts. #15 Clemson (10-3) over #23 West Virginia (9-3) - Discover Orange Bowl, 1/4 8:30pm on ESPN
Congrats to the Clemson Tigers for drawing the Big East representative in this year's BCS lottery. A few weeks ago, the Tigers were falling apart at the seams. Now they're ACC Champions and all but penciled in as Orange Bowl Champs as well. As long as the Clemson team that got blitzed by North Carolina State stays far away from Miami, the Tigers should be good against the Mounties.
28pts. #3 Oklahoma State (11-1) over #4 Stanford (11-1) - Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, 1/2 8:30pm on ESPN
Andrew Luck has impressed me all season. His oozing pro potential has left stains on Pac-12 fields all season. Unfortunately, I can't say the same about Stanford's entire team (except for the offensive line, my goodness their offensive line is amazing). The Cowboys aren't known for their defense but I don't think it will take much for them to tilt Stanford's balanced attack towards having Andrew Luck try to win the game single-handed. The attitudes are different coming into this game. OK State knows this is their best team in school history, and they feel that they should be playing for a title (I feel the same way, I had them ranked ahead of Alabama for weeks). Stanford is probably relieved that they avoided a matchup with one of the SEC's defensive superpowers. This may be a foolish confidence pick, but I think Stanford will come up way short in this one.
Melvin Ingram
27pts. #9 South Carolina (10-2) over #20 Nebraska (9-3) - Capital One Bowl, 1/2 1pm on ESPN
I don't care what anybody says. This will always be called the Citrus Bowl to me, and Capital One can't tell me any different. You also can't tell me that Taylor Martinez is going to be able to pass for 100 yards against an SEC defense. Rex Burkhead won't have too much fun meeting the likes of South Carolina's Melvin Ingram and Jadeveon Clowney at the line of scrimmage either. This could be a long ugly day for the Huskers.
26pts. #25 Auburn (7-5) over Virginia (8-4) - Chick-fil-A Bowl, 12/31 7:30pm on ESPN
I don't care what anybody says. No matter how much I love Chick-fil-A (It's beyond amazing by the way), this will always be the Peach Bowl to me. This year's game matches a resurgent Cavaliers team against a bunch from Auburn who were well aware that they couldn't duplicate their miracle run from last year but still performed admirably. Auburn has taken too many hard knocks in the SEC to cough up a game to the likes of UVA.

25pts. #24 Texas (7-5) over California (7-5) - Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl, 12/28 8pm on ESPN 
The Holiday Bowl is famous for epic games, but I don't see that happening this year. It is a travesty that Texas is still ranked even though they have lost three of their last four games, but the Horns still have plenty of talent. It shouldn't take much for them to outclass the Bears.
24pts. Illinois (6-6) over UCLA (6-7) - Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, 12/31 3:30pm on ESPN
At the season's halfway point, no one would have expected that this would be one of several lame duck bowl games. The Illini were 6-0 at the midway checkpoint and seemingly ready to battle for a spot in the Big Ten title game. You probably could see the UCLA coaching change coming at the halfway point though. UCLA was 3-3 with wins over lowly Oregon State, downtrodden Wazzou, and "no negative adjective necessary" San Jose State. Expect the Illini to end the season with a win after overwhelming the Bruins with their young talent at the wide out position.
23pts. Georgia Tech (8-4) over Utah (7-5) - Hyundai Sun Bowl, 12/31 2pm on CBS
I hope joining the Pac-12 was worth it, Utah. You can expect a lot of mediocre records, random bowl games in Texas border towns, and far more difficult opponents in those aforementioned games. If the you had stayed put, you could possibly have ten wins right now and would probably be playing a bowl game in Hawaii or some other scenic locale. Instead, have fun preparing for the Jackets' deadly triple option and enjoy the bowl trip to Juarez, Mexico. Signed the Mountain West's shattered dreams of being a BCS automatic qualifier. I hope Georgia Tech runs for 500 yards against them.
22pts. Texas A&M (6-6) over Northwestern (6-6) - Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas, 12/31 12pm on ESPN
Northwestern has a reputation for making thrilling improbably comebacks. Texas A&M has a reputation for squandering double digit second half leads. I may have been drunk when I made these picks. On a side note, this gets my vote for this year's worst bowl name. Did these two bowls merge together? That's just ridiculous. Sigh.
21pts. Mississippi State (6-6) over Wake Forest (6-6) - Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, 12/30 6:40pm on ESPN
Whenever two supposedly equal teams from the SEC and the ACC play each other, the SEC team always wins by 20 points. Please reference Wake Forest's 41-7 dismantling at the hands of Vanderbilt a few weeks ago for supporting evidence.
Case Keenum almost took the Cougars to the BCS
20pts. #19 Houston (12-1) over #22 Penn State (9-3) - TicketCity Bowl, 1/2 12pm on ESPNU
It saddens me to see a venue as gloriously historic as the Cotton Bowl being used to host a sponsor-named bowl game that airs on ESPN's most obscure network. Fortunately, football fans at least stumbled upon a good matchup this year. This is another lame duck coaches bowl but for two very different reasons. Penn State's iconic Joe Paterno was fired amid scandal, and Houston's Kevin Sumlin has already booked it for College Station. On the field, Case Keenum will be able to sling the ball around for more than enough yards to take out the offensively challenged Nittany Lions.
19pts. Rutgers (8-4) over Iowa State (6-6) - New Era Pin Stripe Bowl, 12/30 3:20pm on ESPN 
This is definitely my favorite new generation bowl game. It has a great premise, a good name to go along with it, and is two for two with attracting ideal teams. Last year Syracuse came to the Bronx and this year Rutgers will flood the stadium with fans. Iowa State is just happy to be playing this late in the season, they won't put up much of a fight in this glorified road game for them.
18pts. Toledo (8-4) over Air Force (7-5) - Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman, 12/28 4:30pm on ESPN
Toledo comes from the MAC, which has been a glorified airport for offenses this year, and Air Force runs the option better than anyone in the country. In these matchups I tend to favor the passing team. The Rockets can play from both ahead and behind. The Falcons cannot.
17pts. North Carolina State (7-5) over Louisville (7-5) - Belk Bowl, 12/27 8pm on ESPN
This was a very close second in the race for worst bowl name, and the matchup doesn't make the name any more appealing. Louisville was one game away of making a mockery of the entire BCS by advancing to the Orange Bowl with a 7-5 record. The Wolfpack are only here after catching fire in the latter stages of the season. Their huge offensive outputs in wins over Clemson and Maryland are my reason for giving them the nod here.
Kawann Short
16pts Purdue (6-6) over Western Michigan (7-5) - Little Caesar's Bowl, 12/27 4:30pm on ESPN
It will be hard too tell these two similarly programs apart on game day, but Purdue will dress All-American Kawann Short in black and gold and WMU will not. That will be the difference. Broncos quarterback Alex Carder will undoubtedly be rudely introduce to Mr. Short before the conclusion of the evening.
15pts. #21 Southern Mississippi (11-2) over Nevada (7-5) - Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, 12/24 8pm on ESPN
Southern Miss ran Houston off their own home field in the C-USA title game, and only upset losses to Marshall and UAB kept them out of the Sugar Bowl themselves. It seems like the Golden Eagles should take care of Nevada easily, but then again...Nevada is much better than both Marshall and UAB.
14pts. FIU (8-4) over Marshall (6-6) - Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl, 12/20 8pm on ESPN
Picking the Golden Panthers for one reason, and one reason only. Wide receiver T.Y Hilton. Youtube him. He will play on Sundays.
13pts. San Diego State (8-4) over UL Lafayette (8-4) - R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, 12/17 9pm on ESPN
I'm not sure why I have such a small amount of confidence points dedicated to this game. Maybe it's because the game is being played in Louisiana. That's all I can come up with, because I don't see a logical reason why Aztec quarterback Ryan Lindley doesn't carve up the Cajuns down in the Bayou.
Long live the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl!
12pts. Ohio (9-4) over Utah State (7-5) - Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 12/17 5:30pm on ESPN
My favorite bowl name this year...by far. Ohio is definitely the better team here but remember the performance the Aggies had at Auburn this year, and the Tigers turned out to be a decent team. Utah State could definitely make this one interesting.
11pts. SMU (7-5) over Pittsburgh (6-6) - BBVA Compass Bowl, 1/7 1pm on ESPN
I'm not sure why this game is being played on January 7th like these two teams are ranked one and two in the country. Pitt boasts a few standouts on defense, but are very erratic on offense, especially since their workhouse back Ray Graham went down for the year with an injury. SMU quarterback Kyle Padron will have plenty of possessions to attack the Panther's from June Jones' spread attack.
10pts. Ohio State (6-6) over Florida (6-6) - TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl, 1/2 1pm on ESPN2
There is no way that this was an accident. They might as well milk it up and have Urban Meyer do the coin toss at midfield. Hell, why not just call it the Urban Meyer Bowl and paint his likeness in the corner of both end zones. These would all be welcome distractions to the fact that Ohio State is average and Florida is just outright bad this year. O how the mighty have fallen. Braxton Miller makes the difference in this one. He's far from Tim Tebow or Terrell Pryor, but that's what we've got for this one.
9pts. #5 Oregon (11-2) over #10 Wisconsin (11-2) - Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio, 1/2 5pm on ESPN
Hate to oversimplify such a huge game but...speed kills. Oregon has speed in excess, Wisconsin barely has enough. Game Ducks. Quack, Quack.
8pts. Northern Illinois (10-2) over Arkansas State (10-2) - GoDaddy.com Bowl, 1/8 9pm on ESPN
I actually had the chance to see Northern Illinois play a few times this year, and they have a lot of talent. I haven't seen Arkansas State play, but going 8-0 in the Sun Belt just doesn't carry enough weight for me to pick them over a Huskies team with plenty of bowl experience.
7pts. Missouri (7-5) over North Carolina (7-5) - AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl 12/26 5pm on ESPN2
This has the potential to be a great game, so much potential that I really don't have an idea as to who is going to win. I'm giving the edge to Missouri based on their much tougher schedule in the Big 12, but North Carolina has plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball. This is the first of the absolute toss up picks.
6pts. Temple (8-4) over Wyoming (8-4) - Gildan New Mexico Bowl, 12/17 2pm on ESPN
This pick comes from the business side of things. The MAC has some sort of television coup with ESPN that has their games on TV Tuesdays through Saturdays throughout the season (seriously). The Mountain West has most of their games air on either the Versus Network (channel 12943 on most TVs) or The Mountain Network (does not exist on most TVs). Despite similar records, I've seen Temple play three times this year, and I was not aware Wyoming fielded a team this year. So this is another familiarity pick. If Temple can nearly beat Penn State in Happy Valley, they should be able to squeak by Wyoming in New Mexico...I think...because for all I know the Wyoming Broncos could be the Denver Broncos. I've never seen them play.
5pts. #16 Georgia (10-3) over #17 Michigan State (10-3) - Outback Bowl, 1/2 1pm on ABC
Michigan State doesn't win bowl games...that's all you need to know. Sparty's last bowl win was a decade ago in something called the Silicon Valley Bowl.
David Molk is the nation's best center
4pts. #13 Michigan (10-2) over #11 Virginia Tech (11-2) - AllState Sugar Bowl, 1/3 8:30pm on ESPN
This is a karma pick. The most fraudulent selection in the history of the BCS couldn't possibly win their bowl game could they? Virginia Tech should have to play a triple header against Kansas State, Boise State, and Michigan to right the wrong that they caused. I'm not sure how they are ranked ahead of Michigan, and I'm even more confused as to how they were selected. Denard Robinson should be able to run wild against the Hokies on the fast track in the Superdome, but the Wolverines strength in the trenches behind Remington Award (Best Center) winner David Molk will be the deciding factor. Hopefully that will offer some consolation to the fans in Boise and the Little Apple.
3pts. Florida State (8-4) over Notre Dame (8-4) - Champs Sports Bowl, 12/29 5:30pm on ESPN
This is a dangerous pick since the Irish routed Miami in the Sun Bowl last year, but I like the 'Noles because the program is a little more stable than Miami was when they went to El Paso, and the game is being played in Florida. The Seminoles also possess a glaring advantage in the athleticism department (as they do against most teams). Michael Floyd is a force of nature and should have at least been a finalist for the Biletnikoff award, but Florida State will have enough speed in the defensive back field to limit him somewhat.
GJ Kinne is the real deal at QB
2pts. Tulsa (8-4) over BYU (9-3) - Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl, 12/30 12pm on ESPN
This could possibly be one of the most exciting games of the bowl season, or Tulsa could run BYU off the field. Both scenarios are in play. Tulsa has four losses, but they were all to opponents ranked in the top ten at the time (all of them are still ranked in the top ten except for Houston). BYU has three losses, but they nearly beat Texas in Dallas (I assume that's a big deal because they are still ranked despite their 7-5 record) and they gave TCU a solid game as well. Tulsa's GJ Kinne will be the one to watch, his NFL arm will be what carries the Golden Hurricanes to victory.
1pt. #1 LSU (13-0) over #2 Alabama (11-1) - BCS National Championship, 1/9 8:30pm on ESPN
This game will suck just as bad as the first one and LSU will still win. I will always contend that Oklahoma State would have pulled the upset here. I can say that with 100% confidence because the world will never really know for sure. I hate the bowl season.

Monday, December 5, 2011

AmStat's Final Heisman Ballot


The Heisman Trophy, the most prestigious award in all of college sports will be presented this Saturday in New York City. The award will go to the college football player deemed to have had the most outstanding performance on the gridiron during the 2011 season. This year’s race for the sport’s highest honor has been closer than ever and prognosticators have found it impossible to tab a true frontrunner, with the announcement less than a week away. Through the course of the season, many candidates entered and exited the race, but an elite few have found their way onto this unofficial Heisman ballot. Heisman voters are asked to list three players on their ballot, and we will list three as well.
Montee Ball
3rd Place – Montee Ball (Running Back), Wisconsin
Last year, Montee Ball was a third string running back at Wisconsin. This year, he leaped over expected starter James White on the depth chart and has not looked back. Ball has reached the end zone in one season more than any other player in NCAA history besides one. His 38 touchdowns are second to only Barry Sanders, who won the Heisman Trophy following his 39 touchdown season in 1988. The bruising power back has managed to accomplish this feat despite receiving far less carries than what Sanders managed during his record breaking season. The Badgers offense is by no means a one man show. At one point Ball’s teammate, quarterback Russell Wilson, was the unquestioned leader of the Heisman derby. On the receiving end of many of Wilson’s passes was Nick Toon, the son of NFL great Al Toon, and one of the country’s better receivers in his own right. It has not been easy for Ball to stand out, but Ball’s closing argument to the Heisman discussion was a strong one. He ended the season by scoring four touchdowns in the Big Ten Championship game, sending his team to a second consecutive Rose Bowl. It is likely that while in Pasadena, Ball will break the record for most touchdowns ever scored in a single season. That’s certainly Heisman worthy.
"RG3"
2nd Place – Robert Griffin III (Quarterback), Baylor
Around the country, Heisman voters have openly discussed their amazement towards the idea of a Baylor football player winning the Heisman, but that doesn’t mean that the man known as RG3 is any less deserving. Griffin is not your average dual threat quarterback. His world class sprint speed has drawn the attention of the US Track and Field Team, and his deadly accuracy throwing the football has now entranced NFL scouts as well. Robert Griffin is the one candidate that has been on the Heisman radar since week one. His Bears knocked off a team from TCU that went on to win the Mountain West Conference, and Griffin’s play was otherworldly in what many still tout as the game of the year. He followed up that performance with similarly dominating outings against the Big 12’s traditional powers, offering flawless efforts in wins over both Texas and Oklahoma. Baylor may not have ever been in the BCS title discussion, but Griffin has made all the plays to be considered a candidate all year long. Griffin finished the regular season two passing yards short of 4,000 while completing 72% of his attempts. His touchdown to interception ratio finished at 36 to 6 despite penchant for frequently hurling deep passes down the field. If those stats weren’t overwhelming enough, you can throw in the 644 rushing yards and the extra nine touchdowns he scored carrying the football. Without Griffin, the Baylor Bears would probably be sitting at home during the bowl season. With him, the Bears are attempting to win an unprecedented 10th game this season.
1st Place – Tyrann Mathieu (Cornerback/Safety/Punt Returner/Kick Returner), LSU
"The Honey Badger"
The last time it happened was 1997. University of Michigan cornerback Charles Woodson beat out Peyton Manning for the Heisman Trophy and weeks later led his Wolverines to a national title. The stage is set for history to repeat itself. The Heisman is supposed to be awarded to the best player in college football, and “The Honey Badger” has overwhelmingly made his case. Mathieu has been the most dominant defensive player on what some believe is the best defense college football has ever seen. Mathieu has started at both cornerback and safety for LSU and has returned kicks throughout the season. His skills as a playmaker have been unmatched by anyone else on his unanimously top-ranked team. Mathieu has forced six fumbles on the season and returned two of those fumbles for touchdowns.  He also has two interceptions and two punt return touchdowns. His return touchdowns came at two of the most crucial moments of LSU’s season. When LSU met Arkansas in a game that would decide the SEC West, the Tigers trailed 14-7 before Mathieu ripped off a 94-yard score. The Tigers would go on to outscore the Razorbacks 27-3 from that point on in route to a 41-17 victory. The next week, with his team trailing Georgia 10-0 in the SEC Championship game, Mathieu returned another punt from 62 yards out. After Mathieu’s jaunt to the end zone, the Bulldogs would never score again and LSU would cruise to a 42-10 victory. Coincidentally, Mathieu was named the game's MVP later that evening. The Honey Badger is just as dangerous without the ball in his hands. His 71 tackles are highly impressive for a cornerback, and his 6.5 tackles for loss are even more so. Like Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh two years ago, Mathieu has dominated games from the defensive side of the ball and his efforts should be recognized this Saturday in New York. This year’s class of Heisman candidates has fallen short of delivering memorable Heisman moments on many occasions. Robert Griffin III couldn’t get past Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Montee Ball was just a bit unlucky as his team lost two games thanks to Hail Mary’s. But with all these circumstances being considered, when the dust settled on this college football season, Tyrann Mathieu proved to be most dominant and consistent player in the country. He may not win the Heisman Trophy this Saturday, but for that reason, his name will go atop this ballot.