ACC
Boston College - The Eagles are hanging on by a thread at this point in the season. They may be the worst of the three ACC bubble teams, but they have the best RPI, and a series of good wins (beating Texas A&M early, and sweeping fellow bubble team Virginia Tech in conference). Still, the Eagles are a team I would like to see left at home on Sunday. They don't have the look of a team that can win a game in March Madness. Losing to Wake Forest would burst BC's bubble, but a win against Clemson would probably be enough to hear their name called on Sunday.
Clemson - The Tigers don't boast the most impressive profile. They don't have a single win over the RPI Top 25 (A win over RPI #24 Old Dominion would have been huge, but the Hokies lost by one), and they didn't play the toughest schedule (SOS #74). However, Clemson swept the two ACC teams on the bubble with them, and also have a solid win over Florida State. The Tiger's at-large hopes will come down to their meeting with BC on the second day of the ACC Tournament. Clemson/BC is essentially the NCAA's first play-in game.
Virginia Tech - The Hokies may have the WORST profile, but they have the BEST win. Despite being 0-3 against the aforementioned teams from BC and Clemson, the Hokies can hang their hat on a win against Duke, and some decent non-conference wins (Oklahoma State and Penn State). Beating Georgia Tech and Florida State may not lock the Hokies into the tournament, but a semifinal win against Duke would seal the deal. Of the three ACC bubble teams, Virginia Tech has the steepest hill to climb between now and Sunday.
BIG EAST
Marquette - There isn't really much of a bubble for the Big East. Marquette is a bubble team just because media types don't want to pencil in an eleventh Big East team that has 12 losses, but everyone who follows college basketball knows that the Golden Eagles will be dancing. With a .500 record in the best basketball conference ever assembled, and quality wins all over the schedule (West Virginia, Notre Dame, Uconn, and Syracuse!!!), this team is the bubble's most comfortable resident. However, a lost today against Providence could give Marquette fans a reason to worry.
BIG TEN
Illinois - ESPN.com has the Illini listed on their bubble watch, and surely they no more than I do about college basketball, but could Illinois really be left at home with 19 wins, an RPI in the thirties, and a SOS in the teens? Illinois isn't a bubble team, but they definitely are struggling, and they may not dance for long this year.
Michigan State - Sparty's spot on the bubble is much more legitimate. Tom Izzo's squad only has 16 wins and will be haunted by a blowout loss to Iowa and two losses to in-state rival Michigan. The Spartans can avenge their Iowa loss in the first round, and an upset of Purdue in round two would lock them in, but that doesn't look likely. I don't think a 64-team field would have room for Michigan State this year, but I have a feeling that a 68-team bracket just might.
Michigan - One of the most underrated factors considered by the selection committee is a teams recent performance. Recently, the Wolverines have been on fire, and the rest of college basketball has taken notice. Michigan had near misses early on against Kansas and Syracuse, and only have one head-scratching loss (Indiana). However, their 8-3 finish to the regular season means they are one of the few bubble teams that is currently impressing the committee. Michigan plays Illinois in their first game of the Big Ten Tournament. A win over the struggling Illini could punch their ticket, and a semifinal win over Ohio State would put them in position to make some noise in the NCAA Tournament as well. It's questionable as to whether the Wolves will get in if they lose to Illinois, but they are definitely one of the few bubble teams that can still be considered with a first round loss.
BIG 12
Colorado - The Buffs made it to .500 in the Big 12 and firmly stand in front of Nebraska and Baylor as the class of the Big 12's bubble teams. Colorado's sweep of Kansas State and the upset of Texas has the Buffs feeling like a bid is definitely possible, but they know that it will most likely take beating K-State for a third time to sleep comfortably going in to Selection Sunday.
Nebraska - It's this simple. Nebraska must beat Oklahoma State, which is easier said than done. Then they must beat Kansas the next day. If they manage to pull that off, they will have a chance, but at least it's a chance.
Baylor - ESPN thinks that Baylor's at-large hopes are dead, but I believe the Bears will pull it all together when it matters most. If Baylor streaks through Oklahoma, Texas, and then Texas A&M before losing in the Big 12 Championship game, the committee couldn't possibly pass them up at 20-13...could they?
PAC-10
USC - Similar to Michigan in the Big Ten, USC has came out of nowhere to suddenly become a very intriguing bubble team. The Trojans tore through the closing stretch of their season to finish 10-8 in the PAC-10, quietly building an impressive profile along the way. USC has beaten Texas, Tennessee, UCLA, Washington, and Arizona. There aren't many teams on the bubble that can present the committee with a better collection of wins. If USC can beat Arizona (for the second time) in the semis to get to 20 wins on the year, the Trojans will have a better case to make the field than most people think.
SEC
Georgia - The Bulldogs look like a team that should be in the tournament, but whenever your school is absent from Joe Lunardi's Bracketology update in the final week of the season, you have plenty to be nervous about. Georgia's RPI and SOS reside in the thirties, and the Dawgs have a few wins that look good on paper (Kentucky, Tennessee, UAB, and Colorado), but the profile definitely lacks depth despite being co-signed by the RPI. Georgia will most likely move into the bracket as teams inevitably falter in the final week. Georgia could become a lock with a win over Alabama in the quarterfinals.
Alabama - The Tide rolled through the SEC, but did absolutely nothing worth noting in the non-conference season. A gaudy record in the weak SEC, and three good wins may not be enough to put Bama in the bracket. The Tide will likely play Georgia in a must-win quarterfinal game, and it wouldn't hurt to beat Kentucky for a second time in the semis as well. Alabama is the SEC West champ, but this could be the second year in a row that that distinction means nothing for a team on Selection Sunday (last year, Mississippi State won the West and didn't dance.)
Outside the Power Six
- Butler, Utah State, and Richmond are all in good shape for at-large births if they do not win their conference tournaments. This year, the bubble has been very forgiving to teams with impressive Win/Loss records
- UAB cannot afford a loss until the championship game of the Conference USA Championship game if they want a chance at an at-large bid. This means they MUST beat Memphis in the semifinals.
- Temple, George Mason, Gonzaga (auto-bid), BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Xavier, and (surprise!) St. Mary's are all locks for the tournament.
