Less than a week from today, the NFL will convene at Radio City Music Hall for its annual entry draft. With the lockout dominating the football off-season, the draft has never been more important. Unlike most years, the draft is taking place before Free Agency due to the work stoppage. Therefore, teams have more positional needs than usual, and more rookies will be drafted with the expectation of contributing immediately. Teams won't be picking players for depth this year, the rookies who hear their names called next weekend will be expected to compete from day one in the NFL. Today, AmStat will take a mock look at the first round of the NFL Draft. We'll tell you who goes where and when, and most importantly why. Just settle in and get comfortable. This is the NFL Draft according to Amateur Status College Sports.
#1 The Carolina Panthers select Cameron Newton (QB) - Auburn
Cameron Newton may not be the best player in the draft. He may not even be the best Quarterback in the draft (that's probably Blaine Gabbert or Ryan Mallett). However, NO SINGLE PLAYER IN THIS DRAFT HAS THE POTENTIAL THAT CAM NEWTON POSESSES. If you have a chance to draft a player that can potentially change the way the position is played, you have to take him. The Falcons had to take Michael Vick for the same reason (even though Drew Brees was the better actual QB). The Panthers will take Newton, and look to trade Jimmy Clausen while he still has value as a potential starting Quarterback. Mel Kiper Jr. still believes that Clausen is a franchise quarterback. Once the Panthers get their hands on Cam, they need to find a team that shares Kiper's feelings about Clausen.
#2 The Denver Broncos select Marcell Dareus (DT) - Alabama
The Broncos had a comically bad defense last year, and will without a doubt be looking to overhaul their defense during this draft. Dareus is considered by some to be the best player in this draft, and the Broncos need a presence on the defensive line more than anything else. The idea of pairing up Champ Bailey with stud corner Patrick Peterson will be tempting, but the Broncos other corners are not bad enough to warrant passing on Dareus. Peter King from Sports Illustrated also suggests that the Houston Texans could trade into this spot to take Peterson at two, but if the Broncos make this pick...their taking Dareus.
#3 The Buffalo Bills select Von Miller (OLB/DE) - Texas A&M
The Bills struck out when they selected Aaron Maybin of Penn State in the first round of the 2009 Draft, but Miller looks like a can't miss prospect. Many prognosticators are even calling for a double-digit sack total from him as a rookie. Miller is a hybrid prospect that can help the Bills inside, outside, or on the end. His size and speed will make an immediate impact in Buffalo. Some people say that the Bills could be looking at a quarterback here, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the problem in Buffalo, and I believe management realizes that.
#4 The Cincinnati Bengals select AJ Green (WR) - Georgia
The Bengals were expected to have a dynamite receiving corps last year. I even said it would be the best in the league, but their best receiver might have been Jordan Shipley. Terrell Owens had stretches of brilliance that didn't translate into team success, and Chad OchoCinco failed to live up to expectations for the first time in his storied career. With neither Owens nor Ocho expected to return, AJ Green is expected to join Shipley, Andre Caldwell, Jerome Simpson, and tight end Jermaine Gresham to form the best young receiving corps in the league. Shipley has proven to be a good NFL receiver, but he would be better suited to play the slot. Green has the size, speed, and talent to play inside and out. If the Bengals pass on Green, Owens and/or OchoCinco could be returning. If Cameron Newton somehow slips to this spot, all bets are off because the Bengals will take him. Otherwise, the Bengals look to be in the running for a QB in the second round.
#5 The Arizona Cardinals select Blaine Gabbert (QB) - Missouri
The Cards have already experienced a season with no quarterback, and with the amount of talent that they have on their team, they can't afford to take a risk on an aging veteran like Marc Bulger or Donovan McNabb. Gabbert gives the team some long term direction at the position, and he is the most NFL ready signal-caller outside of the embattled Ryan Mallett. If Gabbert can duplicate the rookie success of Sam Bradford, the Cardinals immediately become the favorite in the NFC West. If he struggles, his raw ability will still put the Cards in a better position than they were in last year with Max Hall and John Skelton. The one scenario that would prevent Gabbert from going to the Cardinals is if Von Miller is still on the board, but I wouldn't bank on that happening.
#6 The Cleveland Browns select Julio Jones (WR) - Alabama
The Browns have an opportunity to fill a need with a better overall prospect if they take Robert Quinn, but Cleveland has absolutely nothing at the wide out position, and Julio Jones is an elite prospect at the position. Quinn is just as good at defensive end, but the position depth at D-end is amazing in this draft. There will be an impact pass rusher available in the second round, but there won't be a receiver close to Julio's level in round two. Colt McCoy will have his first legitimate weapon on offense, and that will allow the Browns to determine whether or not he's the long term answer under center.
#7 The San Francisco 49ers select Patrick Peterson (CB) - LSU
On my personal draft board, Peterson is the second-best player in this draft. For the niners to get Peterson here is a steal. He immediately becomes a shutdown corner, and will possibly make an even bigger impact on special teams by shifting field position with his skills as a return man. Peterson's numbers as a returner at LSU surpass Devin Hester's at Miami. The 49ers are anemic on offense, and will rely on Peterson to return kicks and punts from day one as a big part of their offense gameplan.
#8 The Tennessee Titans select Nick Fairley (DT) - Auburn
Albert Haynesworth may have proven to not be worth the money, but that doesn't change the fact that the Titans have not been the same on defense since he left. Nick Fairley comes to the NFL draft with a few character questions of his own, but nothing that should stop the Titans from drafting him. The Titans would gladly take Blaine Gabbert if he is on the board, and will consider trading down to take Jake Locker. Quarterback is definitely their number one need, but their draft choice falls in a bad place within the draft order. Most likely, the Titans will take Fairley here and hope to draft Christian Ponder or Andy Dalton in the second round.
#9 The Dallas Cowboys select Tyron Smith (OT) - USC
Tyron Smith to the Cowboys is one of the worst kept secrets coming into the draft. The Boys need a replacement for aging tackle Marc Columbo, and Smith is reportedly the man that has Jerry Jones' attention. Smith is a better fit than a more polished tackle like Anthony Castonzo because his athletic ability fits the Cowboys' blocking scheme. Romo likes to use his mobility and Smith is the best blocker in the draft on the move.
#10 The Washington Redskins select Robert Quinn (DE/OLB) - North Carolina
The Redskins have holes all over their depth chart, and with Santana Moss possibly on the way out, the Skins probably want Julio Jones to fall to this spot. I don't see that happening, which means that Washington will simply take the best player still on the board. If Quinn is still available, he can't fall any further than this. His abilities on the edge will open things up for the suddenly re-emergent Adam Carriker on the inside.
#11 The Houston Texans select Prince Amukamara (CB) - Nebraska
The Texans spent their first round pick on a corner last year (Kareem Jackson), but their pass defense was still comically bad last season. The team has the total package on offense, but they must continue to build the defense. Amukamara is only a notch below Patrick Peterson, and there is no shame in that. Prospects like Peterson come around at the cornerback position once every few years, but Amukamara is still an elite level talent in his own right. His size and speed make him an immediate impact player that will start from day one. If Amukamara becomes a lock-down corner from day one, the Texans will be an AFC contender.
#12 The Minnesota Vikings select Jake Locker (QB) - Washington
I would have never believed that the Vikings had the backbone to make this selection, but it's the pick that many people believe the Vikings will make. Last year, Locker graded out ahead of Sam Bradford, and many expected him to be a top five pick. However, Locker went back to school and struggled to standout with a mediocre team around him at Washington. Now he's slowly creeping up draft boards once again, especially after Jon Gruden tabbed him as one of the toughest players in the draft regardless of position. Locker has all the physical talents to be a top quarterback in the NFL, and has never played with players that enhance his talents, which means the sky is still the limit for him. I like Locker a lot, and think he can be a franchise quarterback. His ceiling is higher than any other rookie quarterback besides Cam Newton.
#13 The Detroit Lions select Anthony Castonzo (OT) - Boston College
The Lions will have their fingers crossed until they make their pick. If Prince Amukamara is on the board here, the Lions will take him in a matter of seconds. The Lions have glaring needs at cornerback and linebacker, but they can't address either of those needs at this point in the first round. The Lions will settle for Castonzo, likely the most NFL-ready offensive lineman in the draft. Castonzo will be a starter for day one and will be another cornerstone for the Lions' blossoming rebuilding project.
#14 The St. Louis Rams select Aldon Smith (DE/OLB) - Missouri
The St. Louis Rams will be looking to trade up and get Julio Jones, but trading into the top ten will be difficult because of the lockout. Teams will only be allowed to trade draft picks, but not players. Under these circumstances, it would possibly take trading picks from the 2012 and maybe even the 2013 draft to get a blockbuster deal done. The Rams will likely settle for Smith, an intimidating rush end who can play multiple positions on the outside. Smith isn't a very polished prospect but is big, fast, and athletic. He will definitely have a chance to be an impact player in St. Louis.
#15 The Miami Dolphins select Mike Pouncey (G/C) - Florida
The Dolphins will only take Pouncey if they can't trade down or maybe even out of the first round. The Dolphins want either Ryan Mallett or Andy Dalton, but they can't draft either of them here. Miami doesn't have a second round pick, so they have to parlay this first round pick into multiple picks. If they take Pouncey as a last resort, they will have to focus on trading into the second round with a package built around their third round pick. If they can acquire that second round pick, it will be used on a QB such as Christian Ponder or Colin Kaepernick. The Dolphins will be ecstatic if Ryan Mallett's character issues cause him to drop out of the second round and into their laps. Mallett is the type of talent that can start in week one.
#16 The Jacksonville Jaguars select Da'Quan Bowers (DE/OLB) - Clemson
The Jaguars are very much prepared to take Ryan Kerrigan with this pick, but if Bowers falls to this slot, he would be hard to pass on. The Jags like Kerrigan, but they can't justify taking him with Bowers still on the board. Bowers has some injury concerns, but most of them have been dismissed at this point. Bowers was a top five prospect before questions about his knee caused his stock to slip, but after missing on Derrick Harvey in the 2008 Draft, the Jags need to take a home run swing. Kerrigan looks to be a lock to be a good NFL player, but Bowers could possibly be a perennial All-Pro.
#17 The New England Patriots select Ryan Kerrigan (DE/OLB) - Purdue
Defensive lineman continue to fly off the board as the Patriots add to their defense with the selection of Kerrigan. Kerrigan is the type of high energy motor guy that the Pats love. Kerrigan is far from the most talented player in this loaded class of defensive ends, but he may be the hardest worker. If the Jaguars choose to take Bowers based on his potential, the Patriots will gladly take Kerrigan.
#18 The San Diego Chargers select JJ Watt (DE) - Wisconsin
The Chargers do not expect Watt to be available, but if the draft plays out the way I've laid it out so far, he will be nice and available at this part of the draft. This draft is filled to the brim with top notch defensive prospects. Watt will be able to fill a position that has been unstable since the departure of Richard Seymour.
#19 The New York Giants select Gabe Carimi (OT) - Wisconsin
The Giants have had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL for quite sometime, that consistency is starting to be tested by age and health concerns. Drafting Carimi at this spot gives the G-men a young stud to help rebuild this unit on the fly. The Giants were probably one healthy lineman away from being a playoff team last year, Carimi will be the cornerstone of the Giants O-line over the next decade.
#20 The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Cameron Jordan (DE) - California
The Buccaneers are looking hard for a defensive end and they will be more than satisfied with Jordan. There are so many top notch ends in this draft that it looks like everyone will be content with what falls to them. Jordan possesses the same triple crown of size, strength, and athleticism that so many others have in this class. That doesn't change the fact that Jordan is a top prospect that could be a top 12 pick in other years. Jordan will be a mainstay on the end to compliment Gerald McCoy inside as the Bucs continue to build another menacing defense through the draft.
#21 The Kansas City Chiefs select Nate Solder (OT) - Colorado
The Chiefs really want Phil Taylor's foot to magically heal, making him a viable selection for them at this spot. In reality, the team looks to be sold on selecting Solder as a replacement for Barry Richardson, who is better suited as a rotational lineman and not a starter. There are many opinions circulating about Solder. Some say that he is the best tackle in the draft, while others think he is more of an early second round type of prospect. Solder's size and strength can't be questioned, but his technique has been said to need improvement. Regardless, he should be an improvement over any of the guys that KC used last year. Solder's career path will be drastically shaped by the coaching he recieves once he enters the league.
#22 The Indianapolis Colts select Derek Sherrod (OT) - Mississippi State
Colts GM Bill Polian has already acknowledged that he made a mistake by not taking an offensive lineman in last year's draft. He won't make that mistake again. Unfortunately, both of the tackles that Indy covets are already off the board in this mock draft. Still, the Colts will not be deterred this time around. Sherrod may be a reach in the first round, but Indy likes him and he does have talent. The Colts don't have many needs, so they can afford to reach on a second round prospect with this pick.
#23 The Philadelphia Eagles select Jimmy Smith (CB) - Colorado
The Eagles are picking late enough in the first round that they can afford to take a risk on this type of boom or bust prospect. Smith has the measurables of a top 15 pick, but his play at Colorado was inconsistent, and his character has been called into question. However, the Eagles have two pressing needs, cornerback and the offensive line. Philly will be forced to take Smith because of the run on lineman that occurs just before their pick. If the Eagles fall in love with a tackle prospect, they could trade up in the draft to get him. They have a reputation of being aggressive with trades on draft day. If Smith lives up to his potential, he could receive a lot of playing time as a situational corner or even a starter with the departure of Ellis Hobbs due to a neck injury.
#24 The New Orleans Saints select Muhammad Wilkerson (DT) - Temple
The Saints have one very menacing side on their defensive line. Newly acquired Shuan Rogers and Will Smith are beyond intimidating, but the other side of that line is in need of an overhaul. Wilkerson is a great place to start. The big man from Temple has crept into the top ten on Mel Kiper's board and has been very impressive throughout the pre-draft process. Wilkerson and Rogers could be one of the league's best duos on the inside. The Saints are hoping that Da'Quan Bowers slips to them, but that doesn't seem likely. If he does, the Saints will abandon the Wilkerson plan and go with Bowers. If the Saints decide to build from the outside in, Adrian Clayborn and Cameron Heyward are two more options from the deepest class of defensive ends ever.
#25 The Seattle Seahawks select Corey Liuget (DT) - Illinois
The Seahawks want Jake Locker. He has been the golden boy of the Pacific Northwest for four years and the Seahawks would love to turn their favorite Husky into a franchise quarterback, but the Vikings have seemingly fell in love with Locker and won't let him slip out of their grasps. If the fascination with Locker in Minnesota is real, the Seahawks will have to try to fill one of their other needs. Corey Liuget is somewhat of an unknown to many, but he is a top 15 prospect according to Scouts Inc. and is highly regarded among most GMs. Liuget isn't the athlete that Muhammad Wilkerson is, but he was productive in the Big Ten against more than a few future NFL lineman.
#26 The Baltimore Ravens select Cameron Heyward (DE) - Ohio State
NFL Network analyst Brian Baldinger has insisted that the Ravens will take Cameron Heyward if he is on the board, but I don't know if that still applies if Adrian Clayborn is still on the board. Still, I'll trust that Baldinger knows what he's talking about. Either way, the Ravens will be getting a solid defensive end from out of the Big Ten. Heyward is a nice kid who plays with a mean streak that the Ravens will appreciate. I prefer Clayborn to Heyward, but I think the Ravens are more impressed by the speed and physicality that Heyward brings to the table.
#27 The Atlanta Falcons select Adrian Clayborn (DE) - Iowa
The Ravens may like Heyward, but the Falcons prefer the mammoth Clayborn on the edge. Clayborn will be the heir apparent to John Abraham who will be 33 this season. He has decent speed to go with obscene size and strength, and was dominant at times in college. Before the college football season, Clayborn was considered to be the top defensive end in this class. However, an up and down year at Iowa and the emergence of over a dozen highly touted edge rushers has left Clayborn in the laps of Atlanta late in the first round. Clayborn is still an impressive physical prospect that would be going in the top 15 in a different year with less options for teams looking for help with their pass rush.
#28 The New England Patriots select Justin Houston (OLB/DE) - Georgia
There is a 99.9% chance that the Pats will trade this pick. If they do make a selection, they will pair up Houston with their young stud linebacker Jerod Mayo. This pick will actually be spent on a quarterback. Depending on the team that deals into this spot, either Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder will hear their name called here. Ryan Mallett would have been a candidate to be selected here as well, but his recent issues involving a skipped meeting with the Carolina Panthers have made him a solid second round pick. Teams looking to draft Mallett won't be looking to trade into this spot.
#29 The Chicago Bears select Marvin Austin (DT) - North Carolina
The Bears are desperate to draft an offensive tackle. They dont seem to be interested in a guard like Dan Watkins and Mike Pouncey will be long gone by this time. All of the offensive tackles that received first round grades are off the board. There is a possibility that the Bears could reach for a second round prospect like TCU's Marcus Cannon, but I think they will turn their attention to the defensive side of the ball where the talent pool is still deep even in this late stage of the first round. Austin was considered to be a top ten prospect before the season, but having to sit out the entire season at UNC due to NCAA violations has caused him to drop to this position. Austin is still every bit of the dominant player that we all remember, but we haven't seen it in awhile.
#30 The New York Jets select Phil Taylor (NT) - Baylor
The Chiefs really like Phil Taylor, but murmurs of him having foot issues will be enough to scare them away from drafting him in the first round. The Jets are showing no such concerns. The Jets will try to trade down into the second round to accumulate picks, but if the Jets do make a selection, they will likely take Taylor as a replacement for the often injured Kris Jenkins. If the Jets dump the pick, this would be an ideal spot to see another quarterback snatched by an aggressive team looking to make a move.
#31 The Pittsburgh Steelers select Aaron Williams (CB) - Texas
The Steelers need major help at the cornerback position, so much so that this may not be the only corner that the Steelers take in this draft. It's a no-brainer to pick either Williams or Miami's Brandon Harris with this pick. Most experts agree that Williams is the preferred choice among the two. Especially since he has the ability to possibly slide over to the safety position if necessary.
#32 The Green Bay Packers select Brooks Reid (DE/OLB) - Arizona
Reid has a lot of attributes in common with the player that Clay Mathews was when the Packers drafted him in the first round. Their comparative high energy styles of play are probably why the Pack prefer him instead of Akeem Ayers, another top prospect at the position. This pick is also a candidate to be included in a trade if a team thirsty for a quarterback gets anxious.
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